The Atlanta Braves will continue their homestand Friday with a four-game series against the San Diego Padres. Friday’s game will begin a stretch of 17 straight games without an off day for the Braves.
Atlanta began the homestand with a series win over the Chicago Cubs. The Braves pitched back-to-back shutouts in the first two games of the series before dropping the finale on Wednesday. Atlanta has won six of its last eight games and are 26-14 on the season. They actually lost a game in the standings during that 6-2 stretch and trail the Philadelphia Phillies by three games in the NL East.
Austin Riley missed all of the series against the Cubs after experiencing some soreness in his side last Sunday in New York. An MRI exam revealed inflammation in Riley’s side, but Brian Snitker said Wednesday that Riley was still feeling some discomfort so it is unknown when might return to the lineup. Ronald Acuña Jr. was given the day off Wednesday, but is healthy and should return to the lineup for the series opener.
Another player that could be back on Friday is Pierce Johnson. Johnson was placed on the Injured List (retroactive to May 1) with inflammation in his elbow. He threw a live batting practice session Wednesday and is on track to return for this series. Sean Murphy won’t return in time to face the Padres, but is expected to begin a rehab assignment next week. Murphy suffered an oblique strain on Opening Day and has been on the shelf ever since.
The Padres come into the series with a 22-24 record under new manager Mike Shildt. They began their last homestand by taking two of three from the Dodgers, but then were swept by the Colorado Rockies and now trail Los Angeles by 7.5 games in the NL West.
San Diego enters play Thursday seventh in runs scored and tied for ninth in home runs. Jurickson Profar is having an incredible bounceback season at the plate with a 171 wRC+ through his first 46 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. has eight homers and a 130 wRC+ while playing stellar defense in right field. Jake Cronenworth has a 133 wRC+ as well. Manny Machado has struggled to get going at the plate and is hitting .222/.276/.346 with five homers and an 82 wRC+.
While they rank well offensively overall, the Padres have been held back by their pitching staff. They enter Thursday ranked 18th in ERA and 17th in FIP. Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish have anchored the rotation, while Adrian Morejon has been close to unhittable in relief. However, Joe Musgrove has been terrible, and a lot of relievers have been crushed, which has given the team a fair bit of game-to-game inconsistency.
That said, the Padres are underplaying their BaseRuns by two games and their run differential by a game, which is none too comforting for a team that mostly did the right things last year and ended up with a horrible record anyway, thanks to an insane 9-23 record in one-run games. This year, they’re 4-6 in one-run games, which is an improvement, but not enough of one to balance out the craziness from 2023. If they do want to feel good about something, they’ve won two more series than they’ve lost so far this season, so while the 22-24 record is a bummer, they’ve had a lot of good stretches of play, including taking four of six from the Cubs, five of eight from the Dodgers, and two of three from the Brewers.
Friday, May 17, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Matt Waldron (8 GS, 39.1 IP, 19.9 K%, 8.5 BB%, 5.49 ERA, 4.46 FIP)
Right-hander Matt Waldron will get the start for the Padres in the series opener Friday. Waldron will be making his ninth start of the season and is coming off a decent outing last time out where he limited the Dodgers to two runs in 5 1/3 innings, with a 6/2 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed. Waldron’s issue has largely been that he hasn’t had many good outings to counterbalance his bad ones — he seems to largely be either okay or shelled as a starter. In his eight starts, he’s had an FIP- below 90 once, and an FIP- above 130 three times; the same is true by xFIP-. None of this is perhaps surprising given that Waldron is essentially a pseudo-knuckleballer who also throws a bunch of other stuff, all of which is relatively soft. His knuckler is actually really effective; it’s everything else that gets hit hard.
Friday’s game will be Waldron’s first career appearance against Atlanta.
Max Fried (8 GS, 45.1 IP, 20.4 K%, 9.4 BB%, 3.57 ERA, 3.90 FIP)
Max Fried will get the start for the Braves in Friday and will be looking to continue his recent run of success. Fried was stellar again in his last start, firing seven no-hit innings against the Mets. Since giving up 10 runs in his first five innings of the season, Fried has a 1.79 ERA and a 3.65 FIP over his last six starts. Fried faced the Padres once last season and held them scoreless over five innings. He has a 1.67 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 2.87 xFIP in four career starts against San Diego.
Saturday, May 18, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Yu Darvish (8 GS, 40.2 IP, 22.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.89 FIP)
Veteran right-hander Yu Darvish will start Saturday’s game for the Padres. Darvish has been outstanding since returning from the Injured List on April 30. He allowed two hits and struck out seven over seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers in his last start. He hasn’t been charged with a run in 17 innings since returning from the IL, and has largely been outstanding all year aside from a two-start stretch before he hit the shelf with neck tightness.
That said, Darvish has struggled against Atlanta in his career, with a 5.30 ERA and 5.23 FIP (4.28 xFIP) in seven career starts against the Braves. He faced them twice in 2022 and allowed six runs in 12 1/3 innings — he dominated the Braves in San Diego and then got shelled in Atlanta.
Bryce Elder (4 GS, 20.2 IP, 17.4 K%, 8.7 BB%, 4.79 ERA, 4.92 FIP)
Bryce Elder will make his fifth start of the season opposite Darvish on Saturday. Elder successfully bounced back from a rough outing against the Dodgers by limiting the Mets to two runs over 5 1/3 innings. He struck out six and didn’t walk a batter, showing better mechanics and command in a way that he hadn’t really exhibited since the first part of the 2023 season. Prior to his last start, Elder had issued eight walks combined in his previous two starts (8 2/3 innings), but went without a single free pass against the Mets. Elder has one career start (the second overall of his career) against the Padres where he allowed two runs but walked five in 4 1/3 innings with just three strikeouts.
Sunday, May 19, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
TBD
The Padres haven’t announced their starter for Sunday’s game. Joe Musgrove is currently on the Injured List, but was slated to throw a bullpen on May 15. If all goes well, he will likely start one of the final two games of the series. Musgrove has really struggled so far this season with an ugly 167 ERA- and 151 FIP-, albeit with a much more reasonable 107 xFIP-. It seems tempting to say that his shelving with an elbow problem relates to his season-long struggles, but he actually dominated the Reds before going on the IL, so the two may not be related.
Reynaldo Lopez (7 GS, 40.1 IP, 25.2 K%, 10.1 BB%, 1.34 ERA, 2.98 FIP)
Reynaldo Lopez allowed just two hits over five scoreless innings in his last start against the Cubs. He was pulled after just 71 pitches when his back tightened up between the fifth and sixth inning. Brian Snitker said that it wasn’t anything serious and they were just being cautious with Lopez, who has emerged as a key piece of Atlanta’s rotation. Lopez has allowed one run or less in six of his seven starts this season. Lopez has just one career appearance against San Diego where he allowed two hits and struck out one in a scoreless inning.
Monday, May 20, 12:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
TBD
San Diego also hasn’t announced its plan for Monday’s series finale. Dylan Cease last pitched on May 14 so he would be an option for Sunday or Monday depending on where they decide to slot in Musgrove. Cease has been one of baseball’s best pitchers so far, so the Braves will luck out if they somehow manage to avoid facing him in this series. If they don’t, well, this should be a great getaway day matchup.
Chris Sale (8 GS, 49.2 IP, 31.3 K%, 4.1 BB%, 2.54 ERA, 2.45 FIP)
Chris Sale will get the start for the Braves in Monday’s series finale. Sale was magnificent again in his last start against the Cubs, where he allowed just two hits and struck out nine over seven scoreless innings. Sale has recorded at least nine strikeouts in three straight starts and has allowed just one run over that span. Sale made one start against the Padres last season where he allowed two runs and struck out eight in seven innings of work.
